Guest Column: Coal-fueled electricity has reached the tipping point

By Edward K. Dee
Special to the Times

What are the plans Navajo leaders? Now that coal market and technology made the ultimate decision, which the owners of Navajo Generating Station recognize, but not the Navajo Nation.

Time is neither on Navajo Nation’s side in developing a “comprehensive and large-scale economic plan” at this 11th hour nor is the notion of being a “coal man” a coherent policy strategy moving forward. Either of these positions, as expressed by Navajo leaders, is simply ill prepared. The writing has been on the wall for quite some time now.

While Navajo officials were amending the “1980 energy policy” in 2013, dubbed as Navajo Nation Energy Policy of 2013, the International Energy Agency issued its “Coal, Medium-Term Market Report 2013,” which clearly spelled out coal being oversupplied and lower-than-expected demand has driven coal prices down to a three-year low.

One would think the powers that be in Navajo government were working on a comprehensive and large-scale energy-water-economic nexus plan since 2013.

Even Donald Trump is late to the game with his bizarre rhetoric: “(We’re) bringing back jobs, big leagueÉWe’re bringing them back at the plant levelÉwe’re bringing them back at the mine levelÉthe energy jobs are coming back.”

Over-the-top promises to keep in contrast to the harsh economic realities, while experts and mine owners agree that those jobs are not coming back. Listening to Donald Trump to heal the coal industry is like taking his advice to heal a skin rash with a blowtorch.

The great Austrian economist Schumpeter (1942) comes to mind; the Shumpeterian “creative destruction” refers to the incessant product and process innovation mechanism by which new production units replace outdated ones.

With the advent and subsequent conquest of technology, we no longer have rotary phones, cassette tapes, and typewriters or see a travel agent.

Coal-fueled electricity generation has reached that critical tipping point. Its end of life is as predictable as the dawn of a new day.

When will Navajo leaders realize and accept that concerns about climate change are driving policy that favors cleaner energy sources and increases the price of fossil fuels?

Eleventh-hour and emotionally charged decision in pursuit of a comprehensive and large-scale economic plan to offset NGS closure is flawed and reactionary at best.

Highly trained professionals are taught to make decisions without an emotional impulse. It appears this is exactly what Navajo leadership is doing in its efforts to cling on short-term jobs and declining revenues, while forgoing a more robust national-decision approach.

What are missing from the current discussion involving NGS and Kayenta Mine are scientific facts and academic studies.

There is a tier-one-research university no more than four and a half hours south of Navajo Nation at Arizona State University, which is the nation’s first School of Sustainability. Its mission is to educate a new generation of scholars and practitioners in developing practical solutions.

One only wonders why Navajo leadership has not tapped ASU or the Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability professionals and their signature programs and solutions. Programs filled with broad spectrum of expertise and resources from the university and external partners to revolutionize the use of energy and the large-scale conversion of sunlight, so to transition toward a more sustainable energy system.

In fact, ASU scientists have been reaching out to Navajo officials from across its campuses in the past several months with little to no acknowledgment. This is the very academic institution the Navajo Nation have invested millions of dollars over the decades.

I would not underestimate if Northern Arizona University or the University of Arizona has not already expressed similar interest to Navajo officials in offering their support regarding energy transformation, future strategies beyond the Navajo’s addiction to coal.

I suspect other universities and institutes from New Mexico are equally expressing interest to Navajo leaders given the likely demise of San Juan Generating Station.

When will Navajo leaders begin reading the same coal industry trend charts and acknowledge a shifting global market for cleaner energy economic promises in renewables?

Scholars write that the Navajo Nation has more developable solar energy than any tribe, amounting to 100 times the installed capacity of California, the leading state. In addition, the Navajo Nation has an estimated wind generating capacity as large as the installed capacity of Texas, the leading state for wind development.

Faculty and scientists from nearby universities have been expressing interest for Navajo and its 110 chapters, so the nation can put itself in the best possible position to replace lost jobs and to explore a sustainable economic development as surrounding coal-fired power plants closes. Energy scientists all point to eventual closures of power plants, the order in which they will go down around the Four Corners region, surrounding Navajo Nation, is anybody’s guess.

Navajo’s path dependency on coal in this era of the 2017 digital revolution has been part of the problem and positively not part of the solution. We stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and sustain.

Here are three pressing questions: Navajo leadership, are you poised for this transformation? At what point will nation leaders mobilize and plan toward a more strategically focused sustainable energy transition? What narrative do you write for our children and their children, one that is emotionally hooked on fossil-based fuels or one that embraces innovative renewable energy solutions?

Dee is a Ph..D candidate at Arizona State University. His hometown is Teec Nos Pos, Ariz.

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