AIA football rankings: Page climbs, Chinle holds on as playoff picture sharpens

By Lee Begaye
Special to the Times

WINDOW ROCK

The Arizona Interscholastic Association released its latest football rankings Tuesday, and several northern programs are finding themselves in the thick of playoff contention — or fighting to stay there.

In the Class 3A standings, the Page Sand Devils (4-2) check in at No. 12, boosted by a competitive schedule that includes quality losses to No. 7 Payson and No. 8 Show Low. Their best wins have come over No. 34 Kingman and 2A No. 23 Tuba City. The Sand Devils have outscored 3A North opponents 105-7 and reservation schools 161-7, a dominance that reflects their improving efficiency on both sides of the ball — even if the system doesn’t reward lopsided scores beyond a certain point.

“Running up the score” offers no advantage in the AIA algorithm, which caps the benefit of margin of victory at 14 points per game. So while Page’s defense continues to shine, it’s their strength of schedule that keeps them comfortably in the top 16.

Meanwhile, the Chinle Wildcats (4-2) cling to the final playoff spot at No. 16. Chinle opened the season with losses to two top-20 programs — No. 10 Blue Ridge and No. 17 Coolidge — before notching wins over No. 19 Ganado and No. 26 Apache Junction. Those opponents’ strong performances throughout the year have kept Chinle’s strength-of-schedule rating high enough to stay in the mix.

That could all change when the Wildcats and Sand Devils meet on October 23 — a matchup that might determine who locks down a postseason berth and who slides out.

Understanding the Rankings

The AIA football rankings are calculated using a formula developed by MaxPreps, based on a 2005 research paper by statistician Roy Bethel titled “A Solution to the Unequal Strength of Schedule Problem.”

In simple terms, the formula is designed to measure a team’s success while accounting for the difficulty of its schedule. A team that beats stronger opponents will rise faster in the standings than one that piles up wins against weaker teams. Likewise, losing to a top-ranked program doesn’t hurt as much as losing to a low-ranked one.

The system doesn’t factor in school size, returning players, or past success. Every program is measured by what it’s done this season, and by who it’s played. Even the score of a game matters only up to a point — margins greater than 14 points don’t increase a team’s rating. That means blowouts and “style points” don’t make a difference beyond the two-touchdown mark.

Essentially, it’s a numbers game: wins, losses, and opponent quality determine where a team lands. And as the season progresses, each week’s results ripple through the standings as teams beat or lose to one another, adjusting everyone’s overall strength of schedule.

2A Outlook: St. Johns steady, Holbrook and Tuba City holding on

In Class 2A, the St. Johns football team (6-1) are back in familiar territory, ranked No. 4 and positioning themselves for another deep playoff run. Their lone loss came against 3A No. 3 Round Valley, a matchup that boosted their strength-of-schedule rating. Wins over Holbrook and No. 16 Pima add to their credentials as the top one-loss team in 2A.

Holbrook (4-3) dropped to No. 19 but remains within striking distance of the playoff bracket. With games against Red Mesa and Many Farms ahead, their ranking could improve slightly depending on how those team’s finish.

Tuba City (4-3) sits at No. 23, barely inside the 24-team cutoff. The Warriors’ losses to Pima, Ganado, and Page are counterbalanced by wins over Gallup and Alchesay. Their remaining schedule against Hopi and Greyhills Academy may not provide enough power-rating weight to climb further, but consistent play could keep them afloat.

The Piñon Eagles (4-3) opened the season strong but have slipped after three consecutive losses to mid-tier opponents, falling to 35th. To climb 11 spots into contention, they’ll need not only victories against Many Farms and Kingman Academy but help from other teams’ losses.

The fine line between wins and rankings

Back in 3A, Ganado (5-2) ranks 19th — three spots shy of a playoff bid — despite a stronger record than some higher-seeded teams. That’s where the algorithm’s nuance shows: the Hornets’ opponents’ records and lower collective SoS keep them just outside the top 16. With remaining games against Window Rock, Winslow, and San Carlos, there’s little room to make a significant jump.

While the numbers may appear rigid, the final weeks of the regular season often bring dramatic movement. Late-season wins carry heavier weight, and just one upset can swing the entire bracket.

For now, the math says Page and Chinle still control their own destiny — and when they meet later this month, it won’t just be for bragging rights in the North. It could be the game that defines their postseason fate.

4A–6A rankings coming next week

The AIA’s 4A through 6A rankings are expected to be released next week. While those divisions carry their own competitive landscapes, early projections show Flagstaff (1-5) and Coconino (3-3) on the outside-looking in for playoff contention. Both programs will need late-season surges — and help from higher-ranked teams faltering — to sneak into the postseason conversation.

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